Fears that AI will take our jobs seem unfounded, but it is not clear how this latest wave of automation will affect wages, the European Central Bank (ECB) says in a research paper. concludes.
After evaluating nine years of data from 16 European countries, the ECB found that high-skilled jobs in sectors affected by AI could increase by 2.6-4.3%. “We found a positive association between AI automation and employment changes,” the study said.
Low-skill jobs may be safe, at least in Europe. “Exposure to AI does not seem to shake things up significantly for occupations in the low-to-medium skill group, where average educational attainment is low,” the document adds.
This finding stands in contrast to the history of automation. Automation typically leads to fewer low- and medium-skill jobs available as technology eliminates the need for manual labor, the researchers said in their paper. [PDF].
When considering the impact of AI on wages, the ECB found no “clear signals” on which to base its predictions, although the study found that the data suggested a “neutral to slightly negative impact” on wages. “There is,” he points out. The reason is not clear. in the investigation.
Another finding in the paper is that skilled workers and young professionals stand to benefit the most as AI becomes more prevalent in the workplace.
They cautioned that the findings should be treated with caution and that “these findings do not exonerate” the threat AI may pose to the future of the job market.
“AI-enabled technologies continue to be developed and adopted, and most of their impacts on jobs and wages, and thus growth and equality, remain to be seen,” the researchers conclude.
And don't think this applies to the US
The researchers cautioned that their conclusions about the EU's job market do not necessarily apply to the United States, noting that their results contrast with those of previous studies by American researchers.
Research on the impact of AI on U.S. jobs shows that generative AI could cause 2.4 million job losses by 2030. Big tech companies like IBM are also citing AI as a reason to lay off thousands of people whose jobs could be replaced by software. .
ECB report says data suggests low-skilled workers in the US are not as safe as in Europe, and US indicators suggest AI “tends to reduce the number of low-skilled jobs” It is said that they are doing so. The authors of the report contrast their results with the situation in France and argue that there is a positive link between automation and the increase in employment of unskilled workers in recent years.
“Our results regarding the positive association between AI automation and employment should be taken with caution,” the researchers conclude. “These results may not hold true in the future, especially if the path taken by AI technologies focuses on automating tasks and creating few new tasks.” ®
