Nouriel Roubini, the top economist who was one of the first to predict the 2008 financial crisis and whose harsh warnings earned him the nickname “Doctor Doom,” has recently become more optimistic.
And when it comes to artificial intelligence, which has stirred all sorts of apocalyptic predictions, he insists he’s looking on the bright side.
Roubini was asked in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday about how to improve Social Security, as money in the trust fund that supports benefits is scheduled to run out by 2032.
He responded that raising the retirement age alone will not be enough because a large part of the population will be replaced by AI and robots in the next 20 to 25 years.
“Ultimately, we need some form of universal basic income for everyone, both while working and in retirement,” Roubini added. “We’re already on our way.”
With AI poised to disrupt the labor market, top technology leaders like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman suggested the government could provide people with guaranteed money, but he later walked back that idea.
Still, the idea persists, with Britain’s investment minister saying earlier this year that the government was considering introducing a universal basic income as a way to support workers in industries at risk of losing their workers to AI.
In Roubini’s view, the AI revolution will be the most important in human history in terms of technological innovation and will lead to artificial general intelligence, or AI that will match or exceed human cognitive abilities.
This will lead to massive economic growth, with GDP accelerating from 2% to 4% by 2040, 6% by 2040 and 10% by 2050, he said. At that point, the government can tax the “winners” and redistribute the funds to everyone else.
“We will either distribute ex-post, universal basic income, or we will distribute ex-ante, which means a kind of socialism,” Roubini explained. “Essentially, the government will be buying some of the big tech companies.”
He said AI companies were already prepared to transfer shares to the government. financial times According to the report, OpenAI is discussing donating 5% as a way for the public to share in the benefits of AI.
Under Mr. Altman’s proposal, other AI companies would offer similar stakes, but it’s unclear whether U.S. rivals would respond.
As a result, Roubini believes that universal basic income and socialism are inevitable, saying that “we are, in fact, already moving in that direction.”
Asked about the outlook, he dismissed it as bleak. On the contrary, he said he was optimistic, assuming 10% growth and “machines doing all the work.”
This vision is the same as that expressed by SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk. He believes that within 20 years, AI and robotics will advance to the point where working is optional.
“You can grow vegetables in your own garden, or you can go to the store and buy vegetables,” he said on an episode of the show. amazing people December podcast. “Growing your own vegetables is much more difficult. But some people like to grow their own vegetables, and that’s fine. But in that sense, my prediction is that it will become optional.”
