Why SanDisk (SNDK) is up 22.2% on record AI-powered revenue and $6 billion stock buyback approval

• In late April 2026, SanDisk Corporation reported a sharp rebound in quarterly net income to US$3.62 billion on sales of US$5.95 billion, approved up to US$6 billion in share repurchases funded by operating cash flow, and announced revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026 of US$7.75 billion to US$8.25 billion.
• Earnings growth was driven by a surge in NAND flash demand for AI and data center workloads, which was reinforced by multi-year supply agreements aimed at smoothing out the company’s historically cyclical business.
• We then examine how SanDisk’s record AI-driven earnings and new $6 billion share buyback reshape the company’s investment story previously outlined.

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SanDisk investment story summary

To own SanDisk today, you need to believe that while the company is on track to gain BiCS8 and data center share, its AI and cloud workloads will keep enterprise SSDs and NAND tight enough for long-term contracts to maintain high margins. While the third-quarter blockbuster and significantly increased fourth-quarter revenue guidance provide near-term drivers for AI-driven data center demand, they also increase the key risk that the industry’s supply will eventually catch up and erode pricing power.

The new US$6 billion share repurchase program stands out here because it directly links SanDisk’s current AI-enabled profitability and cash generation to shareholder returns. For investors looking at the catalyst, the share buyback interacts with the US$42 billion multi-year supply commitment. Together, these highlights how much current cash flow is dependent on AI-centric contracts, which could look very different if NAND goes from deficit to surplus.

But despite all this excitement, investors should be wary if hyperscalers reconsider their long-term capacity needs or if their pricing resets sooner than expected…

Read the full story at SanDisk (it’s free!)

The SanDisk story projects revenue of $13.3 billion and revenue of $3.1 billion by 2028. This would require a 19.6% increase in annual revenue and an increase in revenue of $4.8 billion from the current -$1.7 billion.

We reveal how SanDisk’s projections create a fair value of $264.95, which is 80% of the current price.

explore other perspectives

Before this earnings shock, the most optimistic analysts were already forecasting sales to reach around US$17.7b and profits near US$5.7b by 2028. This charts a much more positive path than the baseline narrative. If you’re leaning towards that bullish view, this quarter’s guidance and the rise in HBF and BiCS8 may seem like early confirmation, but it’s also a reminder that rational investors can read the same AI story in very different ways.

Check out 6 other fair value estimates for Sandisk – See why the stock is worth as much as $1399!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary using only unbiased methodologies, based on historical data and analyst forecasts, and articles are not intended to be financial advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. We aim to provide long-term, focused analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest announcements or qualitative material from price-sensitive companies. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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