Since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, everyone from executives to new graduates looking for their first job has been wondering what AI means for the future of work.
Some employees are using it to complete tasks and are worried about what AI means for their job security. Job seekers use it for resumes and outreach messages. Some employers have cited that as a reason for layoffs.
But that’s not the only thing shaping the job market. “Despite all the headlines about artificial intelligence and its uncertain impact, aging is another A that will clearly reshape the U.S. labor market over the next decade,” said a post by ADP Chief Economist Nella Richardson and ADP Institute Senior Principal Data Scientist Tim Decker.
Richardson told Business Insider that the United States is “rapidly transforming into a healthcare-driven economy, not just a service economy.”
Last year, the rest of the economy, except private health care, lost jobs. The sector will need to attract more talent to care for an aging population and replace health care workers retiring.
Meanwhile, other industries, such as construction, are facing a retirement cliff. Highly skilled baby boomer workers like plumbers and electricians are retiring, and not enough young workers are coming in to fill the gap.
There is a lot of uncertainty about how much AI will impact the workplace over time and what will be automated or completely replaced, even in the medical field. Aging is a structural issue that will more certainly continue to impact employer needs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said an aging population will increase demand for long-term care and treatment services.
“AI may be the future of the economy, but aging is the present,” Richardson said.
Boom in home health and personal care aids
Demand for home medical and personal care aids is expected to rapidly increase in the future. The BLS estimates that employment in this already large occupation will increase by 739,800 people between 2024 and 2034, more than any other occupation. Richardson said we are a long way from futuristic experiences like “The Jetsons.” She said large-scale language models aren’t about picking up patients or taking them for a walk.
“Employment of health care workers has grown steadily in recent decades, regardless of economic cycles,” said Joshua Gottlieb, an economist and professor at the University of Chicago. “It’s a very stable trend.”
Employment of nurses and certified nurse practitioners is also expected to increase significantly over the next decade, but Susan Grant, chief clinical officer at healthcare operations platform Sympr, said nurses face shortages, high turnover rates and challenges building a talent pipeline during the pandemic and as some professionals retire early due to faculty shortages.
“There’s a big cost problem in the health care system, and there’s a lot of emphasis on reducing costs and making the health system more efficient,” Grant said, adding, “Staffing is a big focus because nurses make up such a large proportion of the health care workforce, and labor costs are so high and turnover really contributes to those costs.”
Salaries for these healthcare jobs vary widely. The median annual wage for home health and personal care aides in 2024 is $34,900, below the national median of $49,500, according to BLS data. Meanwhile, the median salary for registered nurses was $93,600 and the median salary for nurse practitioners was $129,210.
Aging population is likely to impact demand for unpaid and informal care
Many Americans already help their parents or grandparents with appointments, meals, and other activities while working.
Karen Lee Koss, who is in her 50s, is caring for her mother. I take them on outings and help them with bathing and skin care.
“I take care of her like I would want someone to take care of me,” Lee Koss said. “I know what my mother was like before she got sick, and I always want to keep it that way.”
Lee Koss said caregiving requires many hats, but one needs to know when to take them off. “When my children want to have a conversation, I have to know how to take off my mother caregiver hat and put on my mother hat for my children,” Lee Koss said.
Using data from 2023 and 2024, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that 38 million Americans provide some type of unpaid elder care.
“We believe that the informal sector will grow as the population ages,” Richardson said. She said she already has a lot of unofficial work, including babysitters coming in. “We’re probably going to see a lot more informal situations where people aren’t actually working for an employer or an organization, but just working for their neighbors,” she says. “It may be sporadic and occasional, but it helps meet a need in the community.”
Aging population affects all jobs including construction industry
“No part of the labor market is immune to the effects of population aging,” Richardson said.
We will undertake the construction. The sector is about one-third the size of health care and social assistance, but it has grown over the years, recovering from losses from the Great Recession and the 2020 pandemic. Employment levels reached record levels in March this year.
Still, an aging population will impact the industry. Ed Brady, president and CEO of the Home Builders Institute, said more and more older tradesmen are retiring than young people are coming in, not only exacerbating the labor shortage problem but also impacting the productivity, quality and speed of older, more experienced tradesmen.
“We have a long way to go to overcome these skilled workers and retain the next generation,” Brady said.
The average age of HVAC workers has fallen from 41 years old in June 2020 to 37 years old in June 2025, according to ADP data. “This is not because a lot of new people are joining the HVAC workforce, but because older employees are retiring,” Richardson said. The average age for other skilled trades is also decreasing, with electricians going from 44 to 39 and plumbers from 40 to 36.
It is often said that demographics are destiny, and that could be the story of the job market for years to come. “AI deserves a lot of attention, but what we’re seeing now is an aging population,” Richardson said.