New York, Dec. 28, 2025, 1:42 a.m. ET — Markets Closed (Weekends)
Palantir Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) enters the final week of 2025. Investors are divided into two competing narratives. One is a hot AI software winner that's gaining commercial traction, and the other is a stock that's riding the momentum and setting a near-perfect price.
With US markets closed for the weekend, the most viable question for PLTR holders is what has actually changed in the past 24-48 hours and what could be significant before the next regular meeting on Monday, December 29th.
PLTR stock summary: Friday pullback heading into year-end weekend
Last trading time for Palantir stock $188.71about down 2.8% After swinging from the previous close, approximately between $188.29 and $196.18 during Friday's session 26.3 million shares.
In late trading on Friday, the stock was down about 100%. $188.17. [1]
MarketBeat characterized Friday's move as follows: 2.8% slide with lighter volume than usualThis is a common pattern during thin holiday sessions when marginal flows can push prices higher than normal. [2]
Last 24-48 hours: What headlines and comments focused on
Even without new Palantir earnings or new big deal announcements over the weekend, several high-profile articles and market notes (published within the past two days) shaped sentiment around PLTR.
1) The “AI bubble” debate has gotten even bigger once again with the appearance of Michael Burry.
The Wall Street Journal reported that an investor said: michael barry has taken a contrarian stance to parts of the AI stock boom that include bets related to companies such as Palantir, arguing that this trade is similar to previous speculative episodes. [3]
2) Technical traders kept Palantir on their radar “near a buy point.”
Investors Business Daily highlighted Palantir among large-cap AI stocks heading into year-end, noting the stock's strong 2025 performance and continued focus on entry-level technology. [4]
3) Market Microstructure Reality Check: Thin holiday liquidity is a feature, not a bug.
Investopedia highlighted the year-end trading calendar as follows: All day trading day on New Year's Eve (December 31st)after that Market closes on New Year's Day (January 1, 2026)– Useful context since fluidity and positioning can get weird at the edges of the schedule. [5]
4) “Ownership leakage” led by applications continued to occur.
One MarketBeat article published Saturday pointed to the third-quarter SEC filing. carnegie investment advisor reduced its stake in Palantir stock by 2.6%. While this is not a real-time “sell signal”, it is yet another reminder that institutional positioning remains in flux after PLTR's huge capital raise. [6]
Fundamentals Check: Why Bulls Keep Returning to Palantir
The bullish case hasn't changed much after 48 hours. Because this case rests on the same two pillars that have driven PLTR all year.
Commercial AI Traction (AIP) + Accelerating Growth
Palantir reported in its Q3 2025 update: Third quarter revenue increased 63% year over year and highlighted US commercial revenue grows 121% year over yeardue to the increase in full-year earnings forecast (approximately $4.396 billion to $4.4 billion). [7]
These numbers are the raw material behind the “Palantir is becoming an enterprise AI operating system” narrative, and why a repeat drop in 2025 will attract buyers.
Defense and government demand continues to provide sustained tailwinds
Palantir's government DNA remains a key differentiator. Earlier this month, the U.S. Navy announced that: $448 million strategic investments tied to Shipbuilding Operating System (ShipOS) Initiatives aimed at accelerating the adoption of AI and autonomous technologies across the shipbuilding industrial base. [8]
While this kind of program doesn't eliminate volatility, it can support the theory of “sticky, mission-critical software” that long-term holders rely on when stocks become volatile.
The bear case: Valuation risk is no longer a side story, it’s in the headlines
Palantir skeptics aren't claiming the company is irrelevant. They claim that stock prices are far above reality.
Evaluations that require near-perfect execution
MarketBeat rates Palantir's valuation metrics as extremely high, citing its market capitalization close to market capitalization and its very high P/E ratio. $450 billion level. [9]
This is important. This is because a name with high value momentum can quickly be revalued if:
- growth slows down (even if growth remains “good”), or
- changes in macro conditions (interest rates, risk appetite, liquidity); or
- Positioning is congested.
Wall Street targets remain mixed, and proliferation is the story
One of the reasons PLTR is such a battleground stock is the sheer diversity of perspectives.
MarketBeat summarized the “Hold”-leaning consensus and listed several company-level calls and price target movements (from previous research notes) that are shaping today's expectations. For example:
- Baird raise the goal to 200 dollars (neutral)
- deutsche bank raise the goal to 200 dollars (Owned)
- daiwa raise the goal to 200 dollars (neutral)
- piper sandler raise the goal to $225 (too fat)
- jeffries repeat poor performance [10]
At the same time, MarketBeat's compilation shows the following average targets: $172.28suggesting a more cautious baseline for where PLTR ended the week. [11]
The Motley Fool has this to say about the more bearish end of the spectrum: RBC Capital and $50 In the article, Price Target argues that some high-priced AI stocks could face significant declines if expectations are reset. [12]
Insider selling is still part of the conversation
Another reason the valuation debate keeps resurfacing is that investors tend to keep a close eye on insider activity when a stock has already generated significant gains.
MarketBeat focused on insider sales disclosed in SEC filings. This includes: Alexander C. Karp and Shyam SankarEspecially over the last few months. [13]
While insider sales don't automatically mean “bad fundamentals,” sensitivity to negative factors can be amplified in expensive momentum stocks. Because the market already knows that the stock is bullishly priced.
What investors need to know before the next session
Since it's Sunday in New York and the market is closed, the practical strategy changes from “reacting to the tape” to “preparing for the next trade.”
1) Know the Monday clock
- The normal business hours of the US stock market are: 9:30am to 4pm (Eastern Standard Time). [14]
- After-hours trading exists, and the Nasdaq typically records pre-market trading. 4:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. ET and outside business hours 4:00pm – 8:00pm ETHowever, liquidity may become thinner and price movements may become more volatile. [15]
This is important for PLTR. That's because high-beta, sentiment-driven names can end up in the headlines, especially if year-end participation is uneven.
2) The effect of year-end calendars is real (and often weird)
The calendar could drive flows that have nothing to do with Palantir's fundamentals, such as tax considerations, rebalancing, and positioning “windows” in year-end closings. Add in a holiday schedule (December 31st full day, January 1st closed) and it's not uncommon for volatility to suddenly explode or trading volume to be strangely quiet. [16]
3) Pay attention to the timing of the next fundamental trigger revenue (even if it is “unconfirmed”)
If you want to manage event risk, keep an eye on the next revenue window. Wall Street Horizon will look at Palantir's next earnings date. Unconfirmed However, expectations Monday, February 2, 2026 (after market close) Based on historical reporting patterns. [17]
While “unconfirmed” is the key word and companies can change dates, the market often starts pricing in upcoming reports sooner than expected, especially for polarizing high-valuation stocks.
4) The near-term technical battleground is clear: recall vs. denial.
IBD recently pointed out 190.39 Near previous highs as major buy point from cup-with-handle formation 207.52 Cited in that coverage are levels that many traders naturally focus on as potential resistance/support zones. [18]
With PLTR ending the week just below that 190 area, Monday's early trading could quickly turn into a sentiment check: Will buyers intend to defend the breakout zone, or will year-end profit-taking pressure continue?
PLTR final results for Monday
Palantir stock continues to be one of the most discussed large-cap AI stocks on the market. The reason is precisely because both parties have receipts.
- Bulls point to rapid commercial growth, expanding profit margins and expensive government efforts to strengthen Palantir's position in defense-grade AI software. [19]
- Bears point to unforgiving valuations, headlines of ongoing insider sales, and prominent skeptics warning that the AI enthusiasm could cool quickly. [20]
When markets reopen on Monday, PLTR's next decisive move may have less to do with a single headline and more to do with whether year-end liquidity and positioning reward (or punish) stocks that are still priced like future legends.
References
1. Seekingalpha.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.wsj.com, 4. www.investors.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. Investor.palantir.com, 8. www.navy.mil, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.fool.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.nyse.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 18. www.investors.com, 19. investors.palantir.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com
