Recently, top creators have started using rougher thumbnails for their videos. AI has made it so easy to create polished thumbnails that top creators are turning to what fans call “bad thumbnails” to make their videos stand out.
Mr. Hwang taught me something surprising. Even though AI has made it easier for creators to create their own thumbnails, business has never been better for thumbnail artists, even those at the bottom. He said demand is surging because “AI as a whole has lowered the barrier to content creation and now there are more creators flooding in.”
Still, Huang doesn’t think the good times will last forever. “I don’t think AI will fully take over for the next three years or so. That’s my estimated timeline.”
Everyone I spoke to had a different answer to when, if ever, AI would have a significant disruptive impact on their part of the industry.
Some, like Mr. Huang, were pessimistic. Actor Eric Pasoja said he thinks major movie studios like Warner Bros. and Paramount will disappear within three to five years.
But others were more optimistic. Vertical drama actor Tess Dinerstein said, “I don’t think vertical drama will ever be completely AI-based.” Even if it becomes technically feasible, “it doesn’t seem like it’s something people want,” she argued.
Independent filmmaker Jill Clavin thought there would always be quality human films. If someone’s work is “radically derivative,” that person is at risk. But he thinks the best creations created by humans will still stand out. “I don’t see how AI can replace the sacred element at the edge of consciousness,” he says.
If anything, those who were most bullish about AI were the least optimistic about their own career prospects. “I think at some point it won’t matter,” Caban Cardoza told me. “Anyone on the planet will be able to generate a complete high-quality video just by typing text.”
This may explain why Accetturo has become something of an AI evangelist. His newsletter seeks to teach other filmmakers how to adapt to the coming AI revolution.
AI “is a tsunami that will destroy everyone,” he told me. “So I’m handing out surfboards and teaching people how to surf, so use them however you like.”
Kai Williams is a reporter for Understanding AI, a Substack newsletter founded by Ars Technica alumnus Timothy B. Lee. His research is supported by a Tarbell Fellowship. For more from Tim and Kai, subscribe to Understanding AI.
