The survey found that almost three-quarters of the country's 1.1 million public sector workers are in a role that is highly exposed to AI.Cole Burston/The Globe and Mail
A new study from the DAIS think tank at Toronto Metropolitan University shows that the majority of public sector employment is more vulnerable to artificial intelligence tools than the entire Canadian workforce.
the study Released Monday, it found that almost three-quarters of the country's 1.1 million public sector workers are in a role that is highly exposed to AI. Some of these jobs complement AI at around 25%. This means that technology can assist or enhance the task.
However, 49% of public sector jobs are made up of tasks “Current AI technology is good for substitution or replacement.” The same goes for around 29% of the entire Canada workforce. (This study was limited to direct government work, and some such as education and healthcare workers were removed from the tally.)
Federal public services have the highest share of such workers, following 58%, followed by the state. Both public sectors stack more heavily with people in business, finance and management roles, including HR professionals, auditors and accountants. These roles include repetitive tasks that are suitable for AI. Municipalities employ more frontline workers, such as firefighters and landscaping, according to a study that is less susceptible to generation AI.
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“The potential negative risk is as great as the opportunity,” says Viet Vu, manager of economic research at DAIS. “It all depends on how we deploy the technology.”
There are many ways to use generator AI tools with large-scale language models (LLMS) in the public sector to increase productivity. This includes transcription and translation, helping to write and edit reports and briefs, and analyzing geospatial data for transportation and land use.
There is also the risk that roles will be completely replaced by AI tools. But Vu said the reality of some jobs is even more complicated than that. He gave an example of using AI to summarise policy documents. “One potential instinct is the government that says, 'We don't need policy analysts anymore,'” Vu said. However, that task is just one of many tasks performed by policy analysts.
Still, he could predict that the government would deploy AI tools to help policy analysts improve productivity. “LLMs can have higher efficiency and there are fewer people in certain roles,” he said.
That evacuation risk is one reason why the report encourages the public sector to take seriously about long-term labor plans. Trade unions should also be involved in these discussions, Vu said.
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Another recommendation in the report is for public sector agencies to experiment with AI, create an environment that includes low-risk, repetitive tasks that allow technology to enhance functionality, and track success and obstacles.
Prime Minister Mark Kearney said federal public services need to be more productive by “deploying AI on a large scale.” Last week, Ottawa said it had signed a non-binding agreement with Cohere Inc. to find ways to deploy AI within public services.
Mr. Carney campaigns on a promise to cut operational spending, and the minister has been instructed to find ways to do so in the department. Government Change, Public Works and Procurement Minister Joel Wrightbound said the government is planning to reduce the size of public services through attrition while it seeks ways to increase technology efficiency.
In the private sector, some chief executives are openly thinking about slowing jobs and cutting labor force because of AI. Canadian Companies Klue Labs Inc. and Scinapsis Analytics Inc. have already cut down on AI-related job openings.
Dario Amodei, CEO of AI developer Anthropic, made the headline earlier this year with a declaration that AI can eliminate half of its entry-level white-collar work.
But that opinion attacks others in the industry as far sexual. “Dario also said that AI would kill us all a few years ago,” Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez told Globe and Mail earlier this month, pointing to concerns about the existential risks of AI. “That story has changed. We're not all dead now. AI is an augmentation, not an alternative to the workforce.”
