The next mobile phone upgrade may not be about faster download speeds or clearer video streaming, but whether those networks can support billions of intelligent agents and systems handling decisions on your behalf.
For decades, new generations of mobile technology have helped reshape not only connectivity but also the way we live our daily lives. 3G popularized smartphones and made mobile internet mainstream. 4G brought apps and enabled everything from mobile banking to video streaming. 5G has since expanded connectivity beyond just smartphones to factories, vehicles, sensors, and other industrial systems.
But years before widespread deployment of 5G is considered complete, 6G is in the pipeline, and the engineers behind the technology already believe that artificial intelligence will be a key differentiator. Future networks are expected to support vast numbers of AI agents that interact autonomously with each other.
AI is also expected to play a big role behind the scenes, helping carriers optimize network performance, reduce energy consumption, and manage increasingly complex infrastructure.
6G and AI are increasingly intertwined
But advances in 6G are taking place amid growing geopolitical tensions and semiconductor supply chain issues, making this perhaps one of the most tense developments to date. The scale of the transformation that lies ahead is huge (each generation seems to grow exponentially). But the designers behind the world’s wireless standards continue to believe in one core principle: global cooperation is paramount.
If we’ve learned anything from the 3G era’s 3GPP vs. cdma2000 conflict to the rise of LTE and WiMax in the 2010s, it’s that the standard backed by the largest ecosystem, broadest device compatibility, and strongest economies of scale will always win.
As 6G begins to take shape, I spoke with Ericsson engineers and IEEE members Johan Sköld, Erik Dahlman, and Stefan Parkvall about what the next era of wireless communications will look like.
The trio discussed the compromises that define the world’s wireless standards, why AI will fundamentally influence 6G design, how the Nordic countries became the center of communications, and why they believe human creativity will remain intact even in an AI-first era.
- At Ericsson, we have been instrumental in shaping the 3G, 4G and 5G technologies that have transformed human communication and the society we live in today. What is the secret of your partnership? How did the three of you stay together for so long?
One important reason is that I enjoy my work. Ericsson Research’s work environment is open, with highly skilled colleagues and a discussion-friendly environment. The amount of knowledge in this group is amazing and discussing technical issues in such an environment is very stimulating.
Many people within Ericsson are involved in the development of mobile phone technology, many spanning several generations. This is always best when you have a mix of people. Of course, you benefit a lot from experienced people who “have done this before”, know the pitfalls, etc.
At the same time, we need new people coming in with fresh ideas and not stuck in “old ideas.” The key to success is to combine the two – experience and fresh ideas – to create new innovations without spending too much time inventing things that have already been invented.
- As a team of experienced engineers, what were the most difficult technical compromises we made to ensure that wireless communication standards remained globally uniform? Has the fear of another Betamax and VHS war ever crossed your mind? (Is it worth talking about CDMA?)
With 4G and even 3G, there were actually competing technologies. In the case of 3G, there is a parallel organization to 3GPP called 3GPP2, which has developed cdma2000-based technology. This technology was deployed quite widely in parallel with 3GPP 3G technology at one stage.
However, 3GPP technology eventually became completely dominant. This was not because the technology was better, but mainly due to the fact that they already had the largest footprint to begin with. This meant there were fundamental benefits in terms of economies of scale, leading to better device availability and lower deployment costs for carriers.
Nevertheless, the competition between 3GPP and 3GPP2 was very beneficial in many ways, as it created constant pressure to continuously improve both technologies.
In the case of 4G, there was initially competition from WiMax technology. But even then, 3GPP’s huge size and footprint was a key deciding factor. Again, competition between technologies was very beneficial in terms of honing skills.
In summary:
- Competition between technologies, at least in the early stages of development, is highly beneficial in terms of promoting technological progress.
- At the end of the day, global footprint and associated economies of scale are very important
- 3G brought smartphones, 4G expanded its importance thanks to apps, and 5G was all about the Internet of Things. What will 6G be and what will be the killer app?
It’s impossible to define just one killer app. The only thing that is certain is that the prediction is wrong. For 3G, packet data (like ISDN) and video calling were supposed to be the “killer apps.” When 3G was developed in the late 90s, no one knew about smartphones. Packet data was not envisioned until HSPA, an evolution of 3G.
This was timely, as around the same time the first smartphones began to appear. This has led to a rapid increase in data volumes and new use cases, creating a platform for innovation.
When 4G was developed, there was a clear focus on services – providing high-performance internet connectivity – and with it came the explosion of apps we see today.
While mmWave was the focus in the early days of 5G, it has since taken on a more use-case-oriented view, going “beyond the smartphone” and providing connectivity beyond smartphones to IoT, industrial use cases, machinery, robots, and more.
6G is likely to continue in this direction, but on a much larger scale. Use cases that are integrated into 5G networks, such as AR/VR/XR, will also be supported on 6G, but at a much larger scale.
The rapid development of AI/ML will also have a significant impact on 6G design. AI is used in networks to improve performance, but networks also need to treat AI as users. One example is agentic AI, an AI agent that interacts with other agents and makes decisions to achieve overarching goals set by a human user.
- The Scandinavian countries are home to many well-known names in the telecommunications field, such as Skype, Ericsson, and Nokia. What enabled such beings to evolve and thrive in that part of the world? Education? Are you going to innovate?
That’s a good (and broad) question!
Important in the development of mobile phone technology were government-controlled public telephone providers in the Nordic countries. It may seem strange in today’s deregulated world, but in the 1970s and 1980s these organizations had vast resources and were also at the forefront of technology.
Together they developed and deployed the first generation of analog mobile communications technology, leading to highly successful systems. They also contributed greatly to the early development of GSM.
As a result, the Nordic countries were far ahead of most other companies, including highly developed countries, in the use of mobile communications until the 1990s. The fact that Nordic countries are generally forward-thinking and keen to try new technologies also contributes to this.
Another important point is that the Nordic countries are fairly small (but not too small) countries, and their companies usually cannot rely on them and are therefore constrained by large domestic markets. Instead, there was intense pressure to constantly innovate and stay sharp in order to be able to compete in global markets. This has been going on for decades. For example, Ericsson has had a worldwide market since the 19th century.
- What role, if any, will AI and machine learning (and dare I throw in quantum computing) play in shaping the future of wireless communications? Do you think this trio (and another trio) could one day complement or replace the three of you?
Significant enhancements have been made in the field of AI and machine learning over the past decade and will significantly impact future wireless access solutions such as 6G in a number of ways.
On the one hand, AI entities and agents emerge as new “users” that place new demands on the services that need to be provided by wireless networks.
On the other hand, AI capabilities within the wireless network itself are expected to bring significant benefits in terms of both improving network performance and reducing network operating costs. The result is an intelligent fabric in which AI and wireless connectivity play equally important roles.
Note that this does not mean that AI will “take over” or replace the needs of engineers and researchers in the future. AI should be seen as a tool that will make engineering and research more efficient, allowing the human brain to spend more time on innovative and creative thinking, which is its own domain.
Quantum computing is clearly a much more “future” technology, and dare I say it, a potential technology. The relationship with wireless communications is even more speculative. Still, of course, this is an area that companies like Ericsson need to follow to ensure they are in the right position at the right time.
This will allow us to consider not only quantum computing, but also the relationship between quantum technology and wireless communications more generally. Quantum physics is at the root of the technologies we already use, so in some ways it already needs to be considered.
Then there is the area of quantum cryptography, which is probably the first area of what is sometimes called quantum information theory, to be put into practical use. And at some stage, we will probably need to communicate quantum information over wireless networks as well. Again, this is an important area to follow.
- Can you tell us about the importance of the IEEE Jagadish Chandra Bose Medal in the field of wireless communications and what this award means to you?
That means a lot. IEEE is the most respected organization in engineering. It feels like an unprecedented recognition of the work we’ve been doing.
But perhaps more than that, this is a recognition of the importance of wireless communication technology, and therefore of all those involved in this great journey.
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