- Nearly nine in 10 chief economists surveyed expect global economic growth to slow next year, but only 13% think a global recession is likely.
- According to the survey, 94% expect global inflation to rise as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz increases energy and food costs and disrupts supply chains.
- 92% expect further AI adoption over the next 12 months, but optimism about the speed of productivity impact across industries has waned
- Read the Chief Economist’s outlook here. Learn more about the 2026 New Champions Annual Meeting here. Follow us on social media using #amnc26, #2026 summer达达IO斯, and #innovation26.
Geneva, Switzerland, May 28, 2026 – The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated sharply in recent weeks, according to the latest edition of the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economist Outlook released today.
Nearly nine in 10 chief economists surveyed expect the global economy to weaken over the next 12 months, reversing the cautious optimism seen at the start of the year, as the Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh heavily on the global economy. Chief economists have already assessed the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz as far more disruptive than last year’s tariff disruption. If the shutdown continues into the second half of this year, they predict the impact could approach the severity of the COVID-19 crisis and negatively impact global supply chains, energy and food costs across the board. An overwhelming 94% of chief economists surveyed expect global inflation to rise over the next 12 months.
“Just a few months ago, the world of chief economists was cautiously optimistic,” said Saadia Zahidi, managing director of the World Economic Forum. “The conflict in the Middle East has changed the game, and the economic scars from previous developments are already expected to last for months to come.” “The longer the disruption lasts, the heavier the long-term costs will be for those who cannot afford it.”
Regionally uneven outlook
This impact is expected to have the greatest impact on the Middle East and North Africa region. Just a few months ago it was considered one of the brightest economic regions, but now 88% of chief economists surveyed expect growth to be weak or very weak, the sharpest regional reversal in the survey. In other regions, the outlook is mixed. Inflation expectations have risen sharply in sub-Saharan Africa, the highest of any region surveyed, while Europe faces increasing stagflation risks due to slower growth and rising inflation concerns. In contrast, India and the US are expected to remain relatively resilient, supported by domestic demand and investment.
Recession risk is low but volatility is high
Despite the sharp deterioration, the survey does not indicate a major recession. Most chief economists do not expect a recession within the next 12 months, although they say there is little prospect of the economy becoming resilient in the short term. A lot depends on the length of the disruption. A short shock could leave room for recovery, but a prolonged shutdown would deepen the strain on the global economy.
Financial markets are expected to come under increasing stress, with 79% of respondents expecting increased volatility in private debt markets over the next 12 months, with signs of stress emerging in private credit. Additionally, 74% expect volatility in the public debt market to increase, and 68% expect volatility in the stock market to increase.
AI optimism is high but cooling
AI remains a source of tailwinds for the global economy, with 92% of chief economists expecting further growth in its adoption over the next 12 months. However, optimism about the speed of productivity gains due to the introduction of artificial intelligence is now more cautious. Significant productivity gains are expected to take longer in almost all industries compared to respondents’ views in January. Information technology and education are the only sectors with stable expectations, with engineering, construction, utilities, medical, health care, and long-term care services expected to experience the slowest productivity gains.
About the chief economist’s outlook
The Chief Economist’s Outlook is based on consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from the public and private sectors organized by the World Economic Forum’s Center for New Economics and Society. The research featured in this edition was conducted from April 6 to 17, 2026. This report supports the Forum’s Future of Growth initiative and enables dialogue between business and government on growing the new economy.
About the 2026 New Champions Annual Meeting
The 17th Annual Meeting of New Champions will be held from June 23 to 25, 2026 in Dalian, People’s Republic of China, with the theme “Innovation at Scale”.
Held at a time of rapid geoeconomic change, the conference will bring together 1,500 leaders across sectors to exchange views on current growth prospects and explore how innovation, entrepreneurship and public-private collaboration can turn disruption into opportunity and connect the promise of technology to economic progress, enterprise and jobs.
/WEF release. This material from the original organization/author may be of a contemporary nature and has been edited for clarity, style, and length. Mirage.News does not take any institutional position or position, and all views, positions, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors alone. Read the full text here.
