late 20th century (what luck During the “American Century” (which founder Henry Luce called it), MBA and law degree programs were the ticket to great office jobs and the path to the American Dream. The 21st century begs the question, “What would happen if all office jobs were automated?”
In a conversation with financial times Earlier this year, Mustafa Suleiman, CEO of Microsoft AI, announced a new prediction in a series of predictions by AI leaders that white-collar jobs are on the brink of fundamental transformation thanks to AI. His timeline is 18 months before law school and MBA graduates, as well as many less qualified graduates, fall from grace.
Suleiman predicted that AI will provide “human-level performance in most, if not all, specialized tasks.” He said most jobs that involve “sitting in front of a computer” will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months, citing accounting, legal, marketing and even project management as vulnerable. Suleiman’s warning echoes this week’s viral essay by AI researcher Matt Schumer, who compared this moment to February 2020, when the pandemic was about to hit the United States, a version of which is published on Fortune.com. But Schumer says this will be even more dramatic.
Suleiman cited the exponential increase in computing power as a red flag that AI could replace large numbers of experts. As “computing” advances, models will be able to code better than most human programmers, he said. Shumer and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have both written about their concerns and even sadness at seeing their life’s work rapidly becoming obsolete.
If Suleiman’s warning sounds familiar, it’s because it was from early 2025, when many CEOs issued similar apocalyptic prophecies. Last May, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs (although he recently changed his mind). Ford CEO Jim Farley said AI will cut white-collar jobs in the U.S. by half.
in atlantic oceanJosh Tyrangiel compared CEOs’ recent silence on the matter to watching a “shark fin break water” and argued that the US is unprepared for the coming AI disruption.
But the pulse is starting again, with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk saying at Davos in January that artificial general intelligence (AI that matches or exceeds human-level intelligence) could arrive as early as this year.
The real impact of AI on professional work: mixed results so far
But while AI experts have hypothesized when AI could disrupt white-collar jobs, so far the technology has had only a modest impact on professional services. A 2025 Thomson Reuters report found that lawyers, accountants, and auditors are experimenting with AI for targeted tasks such as document reviews and routine analysis. However, while the results showed a small increase in productivity, they stopped short of showing large job losses.
In fact, in some cases, AI has the opposite effect of reducing worker productivity. A recent study by the nonprofit Model Evaluation and Threat Research (METR) on the impact of AI on software developers found that the technology actually increases workers’ work time by 20%.
The economic benefits are largely confined to the technology industry, suggesting that AI’s disruption in the real economy is limited. Big Tech companies’ profit margins rose more than 20% in the fourth quarter of 2025, while the broader Bloomberg 500 index saw little change, according to a recent study by Thorsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. A few days ago, Throck cited Wall Street’s consensus expectations for the S&P 500, saying, “Investors don’t believe that AI will improve returns outside of the tech sector.”
Still, there are early signs that AI will lead to job losses. Some 49,135 layoffs have been AI-related so far this year, according to employment consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Microsoft laid off 15,000 employees last year, although it did not cite AI as a reason for the layoffs. In a memo released last July following the layoffs, CEO Satya Nadella said the company needed to “reimagine our mission for a new era.”
Despite marginal reductions in the workforce, the market is reacting violently to the potential of technology. In February, software stocks suffered a sharp selloff due to concerns about automation (what analysts called the “SaaSpocalypse,” referring to the software-as-a-service sector). The drop came after Anthropic and OpenAI announced the launch of an agent AI system for enterprises that performs many of the key functions for SaaS organizations.
Suleiman’s plan to build a “superintelligence”‘
Suleiman was adamant about the potential of this technology. He believes productivity will increase across the white-collar industry as organizations will be able to adapt technology to perform the jobs they need. “Creating a new model is like creating a podcast or writing a blog,” he said. “We will be able to design AI tailored to the requirements of every institution, organization, and individual on the planet.”
Suleiman said his core mission as administrator of Microsoft AI is to achieve “superintelligence.” The CEO wants to achieve AI independence and reduce dependence on OpenAI, instead prioritizing building an independent model for the company.
“After all, this is the most important technology of our time,” Suleiman said. “We need to develop our own fundamental models that are at the absolute frontier.”
Even though Anthropic’s Claude has replaced OpenAI as the No. 1 model and continues to lead the pursuit of corporate profits, his views have not aged well in the three months since his remarks, as evidence mounts that AI is something of a failure. but MIT Technology Review featured him in April and argued that AI development won’t hit a wall anytime soon.
A version of this article was published on Fortune.com on February 13, 2026.
More about AI and white collar jobs:
- AI is not delivering the results that companies think it will. Reducing personnel due to automation does not generate profits
- White-collar workers are quietly rebelling as 80% outright reject AI mandates
- The factory town was hollowed out by the China Shock. This professor thinks an AI shock is coming to urban coffee shops
