A look at Nokia Oyj’s valuation as it refocuses on AI and network infrastructure

Nokia Oyj (HLSE:NOKIA) is back in the spotlight after agreeing to sell its fixed wireless access business to Inseego for about $20 million in stock and warrants, securing a roughly 7% stake.

Check out our latest analysis for Nokia Oyj.

The sale comes on the back of strong performance in Nokia Oyj’s stock price, with a 30-day stock return of 54.97% and a year-to-date increase of 106.19%. The 1-year total shareholder return of 164.62% indicates strong momentum rather than a short-term spike.

If you’re tracking how capital is moving between connected infrastructure and AI, you might find it useful to see what else is moving and compare it to 38 AI Infrastructure Stocks.

Nokia is trading around €11.39 after a very strong run, and its recent earnings, AI partnership, and deal with Inseego all lead to a simple question. Are there still mispricings, or is the market already moving toward the next growth phase?

Most popular story: 83.5% is overrated

The final closing price was 11.39 euros, while the fair value estimate for the most favored story was 6.21 euros, with the difference largely depending on how Nokia’s network story unfolds.

Strong demand from hyperscalers (cloud/AI data centers) and infrastructure stimulation in the US/Europe expands Nokia’s addressable high-capacity network equipment market and supports future sales growth.

The ongoing global build-out of fiber and advanced 5G/6G networks, accelerated by regulatory programs and significant CSP capital investment, provides a multi-year runway for increased revenue for products and services, particularly in fixed and optical networks.

Read the whole story.

Curious about the assumptions that led Nokia from today’s price to its lower fair value? This story relies on measured revenue growth, more solid profit margins, and richer future earnings multiples. The precise combination of these three levers actually moves the model.

Result: fair value €6.21 (overvalued)

Read the full explanation to understand what’s behind the predictions.

However, the story could quickly change if currency headwinds, tariff impacts, or continued pressure on mobile networks further weigh on revenue, margins, and forecasts.

Find out about the key risks to this Nokia Oyj story.

Another way to look at it: Cash flows are pointing in a different direction.

While the stock’s narrative and analyst targets lean toward the view that Nokia Oysi is overvalued at around EUR 11.39 against the estimated fair value of EUR 6.21, SWS’s DCF model tells a different story. On this cash flow view, Nokia is trading around 9.1% below its intrinsic value of around €12.53, which begs a simple question. Which assumption do you trust more: the earnings multiple story or the cash flow calculation?

Find out how the SWS DCF model arrives at fair value.

Simply Wall St runs discounted cash flows (DCF) on every stock in the world on a daily basis (check out Nokia Oyj, for example). The entire calculation is fully illustrated. Track your results with a watchlist or portfolio and get alerts when they change, or use our stock screener to discover 236 high-quality undervalued stocks. When you save your screener, you’ll also get alerts when new companies match, so you never miss out on potential opportunities.

next step

With sentiment clearly divided between risk and reward, now is the time to act fast, see the data for yourself, and weigh the 2 major rewards and 4 key warning signs.

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If you stay with Nokia, you might miss out on other attractive setups that suit your style, so tap into a wider market with targeted screens.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary using only unbiased methodologies, based on historical data and analyst forecasts, and articles are not intended to be financial advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. We aim to provide long-term, focused analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest announcements or qualitative material from price-sensitive companies. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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