Wall Street is watching Tesla’s upcoming results as a key moment in the EV maker’s AI story.
Tesla is scheduled to report first-quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday, and CEO Elon Musk is expected to provide an update on the initiatives that are at the heart of the stock’s bullishness: AI and robotaxis.
Investors will also be watching for clues about the impact of investing in xAI, as well as insight into a possible SpaceX merger.
Wall Street expects Tesla’s first-quarter sales to be $22.27 billion, up from $19.34 billion in the year-ago period.
The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25, up from $0.12 in Q1 2025.
The company has already reported that shipments for the quarter were lower than expected. Tesla delivered 358,023 EVs in the first three months of 2026, an increase of 6% from the same period last year, but less than the 372,160 units expected by analysts.
Tesla has had a rough start to 2026, with its stock price down about 12% since the beginning of the year, making it the worst-performing company in the Magnificent Seven this year.
Here’s what some of Wall Street’s top analysts have to say about Tesla’s upcoming earnings report:
Wedbush says bulls and bears are divided on Tesla’s position in the age of AI.
Wedbush analysts, led by Tesla bull Dan Ives, expect AI efforts and the continued rollout of robotaxis to be the main events of the earnings call.
“We believe the Street is at a crossroads with Tesla as bulls and bears debate how quickly the AI era will materialize over the next year,” the note said.
The company, which has a $600 price target and an outperform rating on Tesla’s stock, expects Musk to provide some insight into Tesla’s $2 billion xAI investment announced during last quarter’s earnings call and what it means for investors.
Morgan Stanley flags Tesla’s path to 10 billion FSD miles
Morgan Stanley analysts say Tesla is closing in on what they call a “major autonomous driving milestone”: driving 10 billion miles using Tesla’s fully self-driving (FSD) technology.
“In a year when capital spending more than doubles and FCF turns negative, we believe Tesla’s ability to show measurable progress in expanding unsupervised autonomous driving capabilities will be critical to supporting valuation,” they wrote.
Elon Musk responded to a user who posted about the gap between Tesla’s FSD technology demonstration and the actual product, warning that 10 billion miles is an important milestone for Tesla. @Eron Musk
Elon Musk has also emphasized that the 10 billion mile number is critical to the company’s self-driving goals, and could provide an update on how close the company is to reaching that goal.
Morgan Stanley has a price target of $415 for Tesla stock.
Bank of America is bullish on robotaxi opportunity
Bank of America highlighted Tesla’s expansion of its robotaxi fleet in Dallas and Houston ahead of the earnings call.
The addition of these cities to Tesla’s robotaxi network marks another step toward its self-driving ambitions. Competition is heating up in the self-driving car space, which Bank of America estimates is a $1 trillion-plus market, with Uber signing deals with Lucid and Rivian, and Google’s Waymo expanding.
“We maintain our purchase and $460 PO as we believe there is a significant built-in opportunity in robotaxis and believe TSLA is in the early stages of monetizing its autonomous capabilities,” they wrote.
Analysts also said there could be an update to Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus, and said an affordable EV model has also been reported.
Jeffries warns results could highlight ‘gap between vision and execution’
Analysts at Jefferies raised their price targets for Tesla stock ahead of the earnings release, but they are far from being Tesla bulls.
The company raised its price target from $300 to $350, citing “accelerated medium-term growth,” but said the company’s “medium-term drivers remain slow.”
Analysts are watching for updates on Tesla’s robotaxi rollout and insight into a possible merger with SpaceX.
“The first-quarter results show a further widening gap between vision and execution, and the absence of a convincing announcement regarding robotaxi deployments could fuel financing concerns and ultimately increase the logic of a merger with SpaceX,” the analysts wrote.