The AV Hype Conference has moved away from the hype.
On Wednesday morning at the SFJAZZ Center in San Francisco, Ride AI held its second conference focused on self-driving cars in general, drawing over 300 attendees. This year’s theme is “The Age of Markets.”
There was a lot of discussion about the business, infrastructure, and operational aspects of deploying autonomous services, the “unglamorous” aspects of the industry. Chris Lichtmannecker, Director of Autonomous Mobility at Mobileye, told me.
There was one panel about “upgrading” AVs with AI, but the discussion about this technology is over. We also talked at length about how the industry can make a viable business case out of it all. And when you talk about market entry opportunities, the JPMorgans and McKinseys of the world will follow suit.
“It seemed like they were here to figure out who to invest in,” Sophia Tan, one of Ride AI’s hosts and moderators, told me about the huge presence of bankers and consultants. Another attendee said McKinsey came just to see what slides to include in the presentation.
To see what happens after the conversation Riding AI in 2025 This is surprising considering that most people have yet to ride in a self-driving car. Waymo is the only company in the United States today that can be considered a serious, everyday alternative to human-driven or human-supervised ride-hailing services.
A line of robotaxis and self-driving cars were parked outside Ride AI. Lloyd Lee/BI
Nowhere else in the world will you see robotaxis from Waymo, Tesla, Wayve, Uber, and Tensor’s personal robocars parked on the same street. At least not for now.
Roe Gupta, CEO of Toyota’s growth fund Woven Capital, said just being able to tell someone they can travel to San Francisco and try a real robotaxi is meaningful progress.
“It’s a famous saying: ‘The future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed,'” Mr. Gupta said. “When my family asks me about it, I say, ‘Forget what I said. Go to San Francisco, Phoenix, Miami and experience it for yourself.’ We weren’t able to say that until recently.”
Company leaders also said the industry is mature, at least more mature than it was during the pre-2023 hype cycle. At the time, people were claiming that robotaxis were just around the corner. Instead, the companies overpromised their schedules and caused serious safety incidents, including an Uber test vehicle that killed a pedestrian.
Waabi chief operating officer Lior Ron said the industry used to over-promise and under-deliver, but now has a better understanding of how to build businesses using self-driving technology.
“We’ve seen a lot of very smart engineers and roboticists just throw themselves into technical challenges without really thinking about or understanding the end market,” Ron said, adding that the next five years will then be dominated by scaling issues.
Katie Fisher worked at three different robotaxis ventures before joining Wayve in 2021 as Director of Business Development and Partnerships. She said that 10 years ago, she saw an industry fixated on handling every part of the incredibly capital-intensive robotaxi ecosystem itself, from technology to operations.
Uber is partnering with Lucid Motors and Nuro to launch a commercial robotaxi service in San Francisco by the end of 2026. Lloyd Lee/BI
In 2026, it seems like not a week will go by without a robotaxi operator announcing a partnership with a major car hire company.
“We’re now at the point where we see an opportunity for commercialization,” Fisher said.
The key word here is opportunity. Robotaxis are not yet a profitable business.
In recent years, companies have been weeded out of legacy automakers, including General Motors’ Cruise and Ford’s Argo AI. Apple has ended its self-driving EV program. Uber then sold its self-driving car division in favor of a partnership. The survivors cover real-world miles without humans and make steady progress. driver.
Only now is he a serious player.
“Tourists left a long time ago,” Mr. Gupta said.