December 23, 2025 (MLN): The United States is scheduled to release its third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report on Tuesday. The consensus estimate from MarketWatch and Trading Economics is for growth to be 3.2%.
This would be slightly lower than the 3.8% expansion recorded in the second quarter reported by APP.
The report was delayed for nearly two months due to the government shutdown.
The move comes as the U.S. economy shows signs of resilience despite ongoing debate over labor market trends, investments in artificial intelligence and policy uncertainty.
In early 2025, concerns about aggressive trade policies under President Donald Trump were weighing on economic sentiment.
However, subsequent negotiations with China and other major trading partners prevented the most severe tariffs from being imposed and boosted business confidence.
At the same time, a surge in AI investment led by companies like OpenAI and Google has kept the U.S. stock market near record levels.
Research firm Pantheon Macroeconomics estimated that growth could reach 3.5% in the third quarter, calling it “looking strong,” but cautioned that this may be overstating the fundamentals of the economy.
Pantheon highlighted slowing employment growth and weak retail trade as indicators of stable but moderate GDP growth into 2026.
The firm also predicted that the Federal Reserve could cut rates further in the new year, especially amid an expected change in leadership with the resignation of Chairman Jerome Powell.
The Fed responded to the labor market slowdown by cutting interest rates for the third time in a row at its December meeting, even though inflation remains above its 2% target.
The central bank's median GDP forecast for 2026 is 2.3%, higher than the 1.7% forecast for 2025, indicating cautious optimism about the economic trajectory.
White House economic advisers, including Kevin Hassett, have suggested that consumers could see tangible benefits from President Trump's policies, particularly through increased tax refunds in 2026.
However, Pantheon Macroeconomics warned that weaker consumer confidence could lead households to save rather than use these windfalls, limiting the overall boost to consumption.
According to S&P Global Ratings, AI-related investments are likely to support economic growth, but political uncertainty could offset some gains.
Although trade policy concerns have eased, continued uncertainty surrounding legal, regulatory and geopolitical developments is expected to dampen investment and discretionary spending next year.
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