The authors are the authors of “The Future of the Professions”
ChatGPT opens a new chapter in the artificial intelligence story we’ve been working on for over a decade. Our research focuses on the impact of AI on professional work and examines the technology across eight areas, including medicine, law, education, and accounting.
Overall, the story unfolding in our book is future of the profession, I’m getting optimistic. At a time when expert advice is often too expensive and health, justice, education and audit systems are ineffective, AI promises easy access to the best expertise. Modern generative AI systems already outperform human experts in some tasks, from writing effective code to producing persuasive documentation, so some experts are skeptical about this. Of course you feel threatened.
Contrary to many predictions that AI will still be “narrow” for years, the latest systems have a much wider range than their predecessors, allowing them to design beautiful buildings or create lesson plans. I am just as happy to work on diagnosing disease as I am.
They strongly refute the idea that AI systems need to ‘think’ to perform tasks that require ‘creativity’ or ‘judgment’. This is a common line of defense from old guards. Sophisticated systems don’t need to “reason” about the law like a lawyer to create solid contracts, or “understand” anatomy like a doctor to provide useful medical advice. is not.
How will the experts react? Our own research and more recent studies suggest a familiar response pattern. Architects tend to be open to new possibilities. Auditors go undercover because the threat to data-driven activity is clear. Physicians sometimes disrespect non-physicians, but management consultants prefer to advise on change rather than change themselves.
But with the advent of generative AI, business leaders seem to be less negative than they used to be.
Others are interested in how these technologies can be used to streamline existing operations. A recent study conducted by researchers at MIT found that ChatGPT nearly boosted productivity for white-collar writing tasks, such as writing sensitive company-wide emails and punchy press releases. I was. 40 percent. Some companies are simply obsessed with layoffs. US online learning company Domestica, for example, has reportedly laid off almost half of its Spanish staff in hopes that ChatGPT will replace staff involved in content translation and marketing materials.
Such job cuts may seem hasty, but research by Goldman Sachs predicts that up to 300 million full-time jobs worldwide could be threatened by automation. But few experts are willing to let AI take over the most complex tasks. They continue to imagine that AI systems will be limited to “everyday” activities: simple, repetitive parts of work such as document reviews, administrative tasks, and routine mundane tasks. But when it comes to complex activities, many experts argue that people will always seek professional personal attention.
Each element of this claim is open to dispute. GPT’s capabilities are already well beyond “everyday”. For personal caution, we can learn from taxes.
Few people who file their tax returns using online tools rather than human experts lament the loss of social interaction with their tax advisors.
To claim that a client is looking for an expert in a trusted advisor is to confuse process and outcome. Patients don’t want doctors, they want health. Clients don’t want litigation, they want to avoid the pitfalls in the first place. People want solutions they can trust, whether they rely on a human expert or AI.
This leads to a broader question. How are existing professionals adapting and how are they training young professionals? It’s going to end up. Current and future workers will need to acquire the skills needed to build and operate systems that replace the old ways of working, including knowledge engineering, data science, design thinking, and risk management.
Some argue that teaching people to code is a priority. But this is an area where AI systems already excel. Developed by DeepMind, AlphaCode beat almost half of the contestants in major coding competitions. Instead, we should live with the emergence of unfamiliar new roles like the all-important prompt optimizer. They are currently the most skilled at directing and ensuring the best response from generative AI systems.
Of course, there are risks with the latest AI. A recent technical paper on GPT4 acknowledged that the system could “amplify prejudices and perpetuate stereotypes.” They can “hallucinate”. They’re also plain wrong and can cause technical unemployment fears. As such, ethical and regulatory debates are hotly debated. However, as performance increases at some stage and its benefits become undisputed, threats and drawbacks are often outweighed by the increased access that AI provides.
Professions are not ready. Many companies are still focused on selling employee time, and their growth strategies are premised on building large armies of traditional lawyers, auditors, tax advisors, architects, etc. and
Big opportunities are definitely elsewhere. In particular, to be actively involved in the development of generative AI applications for clients.
