- Arthur Hayes said investors are paralyzed by AI and the Iran war.
- He added that there is no clear reason for Bitcoin to rise.
- Hayes recommends waiting until the Federal Reserve responds.
Bitcoin is locked in a “no-trade zone,” with Arthur Hayes saying on Thursday that he won’t inject new capital into the market until the Federal Reserve injects new capital into the economy.
On April 16th essaythe BitMEX co-founder and crypto hedge fund manager, explained that his hedge fund Maelstrom “ruined all trades in the first quarter of 2026” as two formidable forces left Bitcoin trying to find direction.
The first is AI. Mr Hayes said agents were replacing knowledge workers on a large scale, threatening a deflationary collapse. on the other hand, iran war This is causing turmoil in commodity markets and could force central banks to print more money, but only if the situation worsens.
Until that happens and the Fed resumes printing money, Hayes doesn’t think the risk-reward balance in the economy justifies allocating more money.
To create new dollars, colloquially known as “money printing,” the Fed buys government bonds from banks and injects new cash into the financial system.
AI eats up jobs
For a while, the common refrain was that “AI will eat your job.”
Hayes says that’s already happening. He gave the example of a crypto gaming entrepreneur who automated his engineering workflow using only Claude AI agents.
Another engineer was able to ship a product in four days that was expected to take six months. Half of the company’s employees will be laid off within weeks, Hayes wrote.
That’s a problem in itself, but Hayes believes the bigger problem lies further downstream, in the consumer credit market.
Let’s say that the average annual salary for knowledge workers in the United States is between $85,000 and $90,000. If they lose their jobs and apply for unemployment insurance, their income will plummet to about $28,000 a year, according to the report. Bureau of Labor Statistics and st louis fed bank. They are forced to rely on consumer loans to pay their bills and make daily living.
What if you don’t have enough money to pay off that debt?
“We have no choice but to default on consumer loan payments to banks,” Hayes wrote. “The Fugazi fiat split banking system is over.”
Iran is divided into three parts
Then there’s the Iran war.
Hayes outlined three scenarios of conflict, each with a different impact on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin could soar to $90,000 if the war ends quickly, but Hayes won’t invest until the Fed provides liquidity to fill the holes in banks’ balance sheets.
Bitcoin on Thursday was trading around $75,000.
Second, if Iran succeeds in restricting all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and begins charging tolls in RMB or Bitcoin, countries will sell dollar assets to raise RMB. This could trigger a sell-off of dollar assets and force the Fed to turn off the cash spigot. Hayes writes that Bitcoin will only rise after the money printing presses are turned on.
Finally, even if the United States destroys Iran’s ability to interdict shipping, commodity prices will skyrocket if Iran reduces energy production in the Persian Gulf with it.
Central banks have little choice but to print money to subsidize food and energy. This means Bitcoin will rise, but at a significant cost.
Pedro Solimano I am a market correspondent based in Buenos Aires. Any tips? send him an email psolimano@dlnews.com.
