good morning. While AI is already increasing worker productivity, financial results have not yet caught up.
“Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives” is a new research paper by researchers at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. While CFOs are reporting productivity gains from AI, we find that revenue-based evidence currently tells a more cautious story.
Based on a survey of approximately 750 business executives, the study identifies the “productivity paradox.” Companies reported an average productivity increase of 1.8% from AI in 2025, but when researchers calculated the implied benefits using actual revenue and employment data, the report found that the increase was much smaller across all major industries in both 2025 and 2026.
“We’re not really at the top line yet,” John Graham, a professor of finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and co-author of the study, told me. “Certainly there will be some delays.”
“It’s also possible that CFOs are optimistic about all possibilities,” he added. “When it comes to productivity, we specifically look for output per employee.”
But Graham’s main point is timing. Companies that ramped up their AI investments in late 2025 have not fully rolled out features, adjusted pricing, or realized revenue growth. The reported 2025 earnings are roughly in line with the earnings implied by the 2026 earnings, implying a one-year lag.
This pattern reflects the famous “productivity paradox” described by economist Robert Solow in 1987. Solow pointed out that although computer use is widespread, it has not been reflected in productivity statistics for many years. The paper’s authors argue that AI could follow the same trajectory.
When it comes to AI, the benefits vary across industries. High-skill services such as finance have shown the highest growth, while manufacturing, construction, and low-skill services have lagged behind but remain positive. The differences reflect how AI is being deployed across sectors and company types.
“AI will replace call centers for some industries,” Graham says. “The other one will be related to conveyor belts in factories. The other one will be reducing the number of analysts, replacing financial analysts with AI.”
Importantly, these gains do not come from capital investment, but from improvements in efficiency and quality.
The challenge for CFOs is to justify spending on AI before the benefits are visible.
“ROI often depends on the exact way it is calculated, a point-in-time estimate like this year’s increase in revenue divided by this year’s investment amount,” Graham says. “What you really want to know is how much money I’m investing today will increase in value this year, next year, and the year after.”
He added: “When it comes to value creation, we want to use some kind of measure that captures improvements at least a few years into the future rather than at a point in time.”
Mr. Graham advises on a multi-year outlook. “If you can’t show that in a three- or four-year time frame, you might need to be more cautious.” You may be caught up in the trend, he says, but you may not yet have a plan for how it will actually benefit your company.
“We want to look at the longer term, not just one year, but we need to do that with discipline, so we can’t just hope things get better,” Graham said.
Cheryl estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com
leader board
Brittany Cerwin He has been promoted immediately to CFO of The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ: MIDD), a food service equipment company. Cerwin will replace Brian Mittelman, who has served as CFO since 2019 and will transition to special advisor to the CEO. Cerwin joined Middleby in 2011 and has held several leadership roles in the financial sector. Most recently, she served as Chief Accounting Officer. Prior to that, he served as a corporate controller. Prior to joining Middleby, he worked at Grant Thornton LLP in Chicago.
james suba Mr. Suba was appointed Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Velo3D, Inc. (NASDAQ: VELO), a metal 3D printing technology company, effective April 6. Suba will succeed Bernard Chan, who has been acting chief financial officer since December 31. Mr. Chan will continue to serve as the company’s executive manager. Suba has over 20 years of experience in capital markets and technology, most recently serving as SVP and Head of Finance at Cricut.
big deal
A new Gallup report finds that U.S. worker benefits have worsened since 2022, along with worsening perceptions of the job market.
In Q4 2025, 28% of U.S. employees said now is a good time to find a quality job, while 72% said now is a bad time. This marks a “dramatic reversal” from mid-2022, when nearly 70% of workers were optimistic, according to Gallup. “The 42-point decline since then represents the largest collapse in job market confidence that Gallup has recorded in the past four years,” the report states.
even deeper
luck has announced its 2026 America’s Most Innovative Companies list. The ranking is built on three pillars: product innovation, process innovation and innovation culture.
This is the fourth year luck announced its list, and Alphabet topped the list for the fourth year in a row. Rounding out the top 10 are Microsoft, Apple, Abbott Laboratories, KLA, IBM, Nvidia, Nike, Adobe, and Oracle. ”
overheard
“We have 14 grandchildren and 11 great-grandchildren. I think nine or 10 of our grandchildren are also in the business. So they seem to like it too. It looks like they’ll continue the way we’ve built it.”
— said Jerry Murrell, 82, founder of the Five Guys burger franchise. luck In an interview. The company is celebrating its 40th anniversary. Mr. Murrell opened his first store in 1986 with his wife, Janie.
